Ai gonna put us out of business? This article explains the future, impact and possibilities of Ai

The first quarter of the 2023 is AI’s. With CHATGPT, New Bing, GPT-4, Google Bard, MidJourney v 5, Adobe Firefly… … a series of names came out, and many people finally began to understand and accept the fact that AI is not far away, it is changing our world.
In just one month from February to March, there were hundreds of applications based on the OpenAI API, ranging from research and reading to analytics and programming. The Giants are coming in, trying to plug AI into their products. Internet also because of AI trend, ushered in more than a decade has not seen a new situation.
Once again, the age-old question is:Now that AI is so mature, will it take our place?
The interesting fact is that what we thought was the easiest thing for AI to do, was the most labor-intensive work at the bottom, and the least easy was the work that involved creativity, thought and emotion — but it turns out, it’s just a human fantasy.
Here’s the reality: MidJourney and Stable Diffusion have been tuned and controlled to produce realistic AI drawings and even simulate photos. The ability to take pride in human beauty, in the face of AI, is just a group of noise following a pattern.
Thinking? CHATGPT already has the ability to talk to users in natural language, answer questions, refine text, refine information, and write drafts. Microsoft’s New Bing and Google’s Bard, combined with web search capabilities, combine real-time data and predictive models to help us aggregate information and tell us directly.
What about emotions? Accompany, communicate, comfort, listen, these can also use AI to do? Regrettably, there has been some exploration in psychology of using AI to design robots that can perform CBT (cognitive behavioral therapy) , with good results. As for simple conversation and listening, to the large language model, but a piece of cake.
As for front-end design, financial analysis, financial consulting, text editing… … these jobs are just incidental to AI. They’re not even the main object of AI, but they are naturally addressed by AI.
On the contrary, because AI does not have the ability to perceive the real world and does not understand the laws of physics, it can only use sensors to roughly simulate the perception of the real world, so when it comes to“Action” and“Action” jobs, AI is at a very low level right now, not even as low as a two-or three-year-old, it is also difficult to break through in the foreseeable future — this is known as “Moravec’s paradox”.
So how will AI affect our lives in the future for some time to come? Will many people lose their jobs because of this?
To answer this question, we need to delve deeper into the question: What Role Does Ai play in our lives and production models?

The AI that we’re implementing now, including the AI that we’ll be able to implement in the foreseeable future, is not really AGI, it’s instrumental AI.
What is General Artificial Intelligence? In short, it’s an AI that, like humans, can think independently, understand the situation, and deal with the general problems that humans face, which is what we see in science fiction. If such AI were to emerge, it would surely replace most jobs and bring about unprecedented change, no doubt about it.
The good news is that such AI is still out of reach for humans, and we’re unlikely to achieve it now, or even in the foreseeable future.
The type of AI we currently implement, whether it’s the large-scale language model (LLM) behind ChatGPT, or the Diffusion algorithm on which AI paintings are based, is essentially a kind of context-specific training, fed with huge amounts of data, a type of model from which it learns the patterns and rules of the data.
They have data-processing capabilities that humans can not match, but their range and limits are inherently“Locked in,” allowing them to perform only the specific tasks they are trained to perform, and they can not spontaneously develop“Subjectivity.”.
General artificial intelligence, for example, is like a computer, and the AI that we’re implementing now is like a vacuum cleaner and a washing machine, and they’re much better at doing certain tasks than humans are, but they are unlikely to exceed their designed ceilings.
Of course, just as machines replace workers, tool-based AI is bound to have a big impact on our work. So let’s take a look: How will current (and short-term) tool AI change our lives?
OpenAI recently published a paper that provides an interesting perspective. In this paper, OpenAI lists 2,087“Detailed Work Activities”(DWA) . A process is the smallest unit of work that can be done, and a job may consist of multiple processes. For example, “Decision” is a job, it may be“Gathering information”, “Assessment of priorities” and other processes.
OpenAI then asked humans and GPT-4 to assess whether using AI could reduce the time of a process by more than 50% if the quality of the process remained the same, then it’s replaceable — OpenAI’s term is“Exposure to Ai.”. If most processes of a job are exposed to AI, then the job is exposed to AI.
OpenAI’s conclusion: after a joint assessment of humans and GPT-4, approximately 80% of occupations we know of will have at least one job exposed to AI, and 19% of occupations will have half of their jobs exposed to GPT.
Here are some concrete examples:

This chart shows exposure rates for different occupations. You can see the 100% part, which means that as AI develops, all the jobs in these classes will be exposed to AI. Which occupations. The tables list these: mathematicians, tax filers, financial quantitative analysis, writers, web and front-end developers…

Many people understand this as: does this mean that these industries will be replaced by AI, will be unemployed? Does that mean that 19% of the industry, at least half of the people will be out of work?
。Not really. Why don’t I use the word“Substitute” instead of the word“Exposure”? That’s because it’s not meant to be a substitute, it’s meant to be efficient. Instead of saying, “Half the people in these industries will be replaced by AI,” we should say, “The people in these industries will more than double their output.”.
Many people may say: this is not a replacement? A task, originally 10 people need to do six months, now become 5 people six months, that does not mean that there are 5 people may be laid off?
Not So, for the simple reason that demand increases.
What does it mean for an industry to double its output? That means its revenue and barriers to entry will be much lower. Obviously, more people will want to enter the industry. As long as the industry is not saturated, its demand and capacity is bound to rise.
When demand rises in many of these industries, it drives up and down the chain, making the chain more dynamic and efficient, creating more demand and more jobs, form a virtuous circle.
To take the simplest example: e-commerce certainly had a huge impact on offline consumption, but did e-commerce destroy the consumer industry? Of course not. As a result, e-commerce has greatly lowered the threshold for everyone to participate, allowing more people to join in. As a result, driven upstream factories, brands, supply chain, downstream logistics, warehousing… … the consumer sector has not been destroyed, it has prospered.
Similarly: Game Studios may not need as much art, but at the same time, the lower barriers to entry make more people willing to join in, so there may be several times the emerging studio;. If the cycle of novel creation is reduced, it may lead to lower costs and higher output in the publishing and film industries, then more people may devote themselves to novel creation and write more works…
Tool AI has no subjectivity, it is always needed to use, and everyone’s time and energy is limited. As long as this society still has a high degree of division of labor, there must be a large number of needs can be met.
I want to translate a book, I want to design a website, I want to edit a video, and of course I can let Ai do it — , but I can’t do everything myself, I must have something I need to hand over to someone else. A lot of this demand, combined, could create enormous jobs at the acceleration of AI.
In other words: Ai does not bring about unemployment, but to the value exchange of society as a whole more detailed and more effective.
A lot of people will find out: many things that they wanted to do but couldn’t do before, now suddenly have corresponding service to be able to realize; also a lot of people will find: many skills that they have mastered, under the blessing of AI, now it can be put to better use.

There must, of course, be a ceiling on this increase in demand. As more and more people get involved, competition will intensify and prices will fall until the market is saturated with competition-after all, we may not need as many games, novels, and movies, it must have an upper limit.
But if you accept that the world as a whole is far from the limit of economic growth, that there is a lot of unmet needs, that there is a lot of time that is not being used — then, the development of AI makes the whole world move in a more prosperous and abundant direction, which is a matter of high probability.
What is the role of AI in this sense? Is a catalyst.
Our Society, is made up of many, many complex systems, made up of chains, where every link in the chain is in the Exchange value of demand and supply. However, because of all kinds of resources and practical factors, the operation of many chains is not good enough, there are many cards, slow, broken place. This leads to misallocation and invalidation of resources.
For example, you must have the feeling that there are a lot of movies and TV shows on the market, but nothing I want to see, I can’t find what I want to see, maybe the producers don’t know or won’t consider my needs, or, i have an idea, I want to make it out, and I’m sure it will help a lot of people, but the time and economic cost is too high, I have to regret giving up.
This is the failure of resources. This is what happens in most industries. Demand and supply can not be well connected, or supply loop is too long, it is difficult to timely and effective formation of feedback.

The core role of AI was to open up the areas where the cards were slow and broken, so that the loops could operate more quickly and smoothly, accelerating the flow of information and value.
The intuitive feeling is that the world is getting faster and more accurate: many products can be updated faster, many small and beautiful products can be created, … Many small needs can be seen, attention and satisfaction, many stay in the idea of things, can be achieved…
This is not imagination, but the reality of what is happening.
What if society as a whole were to develop along these lines?
AI will be the connector to everything. At that time, AI will become a brand-new, huge interface, connecting everything together, connecting all information and resources.
At that time, AI will become the new“Internet” and all future products and services will be connected to AI. “Using AI” will become a commonplace, as we once said, “Surfing the internet”, as an obsolete term.
We can simply imagine some scenarios:
Write a program, you can tell AI requirements, it will automatically help us determine the framework, complement the code, we just need to do some improvement. If you have a problem, ask the AI for a possible solution, which will automatically connect to the knowledge base on the web and help us diagnose it.
Graphic Design, you can use their own work training AI model, combined with customer AI written needs, generating concept sketches, after selection to improve, we can use AI to help complete the details, textures, patterns, we just need to do some fine-tuning.

In product development, AI can help us analyze user needs, extract the most critical improvement suggestions from a large number of interviews and feedback; it can also help us complete the prototype design, functional logic, product testing, data collection… … all we have to do is steer and make decisions.
In daily work, we only need to focus on work, AI will automatically collect our data, upload to the terminal inside, fully automatic real-time project management, resource scheduling, task assignment. At the same time, AI can integrate the data of various departments, find potential problems, timely warning.
In scientific research, AI can help us predict and design new drugs to solve difficult problems, and it can analyze the published literature in different fields to get potential topics and research directions, it even provides possible experimental designs and methods to assist us in scientific research and exploration.
Socially, it can analyze our life data and social media to match us with friends and romantic partners who are better suited to us. If you want to be alone, you can have your own chatbot that comes and goes whenever you want, without expending too much energy on meaningless social interactions.
As for daily life, everyone would have their own AI assistant, based on their own diaries, documents, reading records, work data training, familiar with their own preferences and habits. It becomes our“Second Brain”, giving us advice and opinions, from which decisions are better, to which clothes and movies suit us better…
Some of these scenarios are preliminary, some may be some distance away, but they are not far away. By then, we will no longer live only in the physical world, in the Internet, but also in AI.
At that time, our tentacles and possibilities will be greatly extended. We can put a lot of tedious, repetitive daily work to AI, to free up more time, to learn new things, new technologies, to think about New Directions, new ideas, to explore new possibilities, new lives.

The development of AI, of course, is not entirely without cause for alarm.
From an individual perspective, AI will be everyone’s“Amplifier”-AI will amplify your original capabilities. The more skills you have, the better your knowledge system, the more possibilities and value you can reach with AI.
The simple truth is that AI makes it easier to learn. So obviously, the better you are at learning, the more AI will help you. This will set you apart from everyone else, and it will only get worse.
Similarly, AI can greatly increase“Output”. Then, the faster and better your original output, the more effective AI will be to you. This leads to a head-clustering effect, which improves the overall quality of the industry while also making it easier for some of the bottom players to be eliminated.
So, although in the previous analysis, I argued that society as a whole could function more efficiently and better with AI, at the same time, it could also increase inequality and widen the gap between people, it is entirely possible to make the industry update faster and people have to“Run for their lives” to avoid being eliminated from the industry.
So, in the face of the AI wave, my point has always been this:
1) to specialize in their own strengths and professional areas, and constantly improve their professional level.

think about how to apply AI to your major to improve your output and efficiency.

3) constantly receive new information, embrace new changes, expand their horizons, reach out to more people and industries, think about what can collide with their new spark.
Don’t think of Ai as a monster, think of it as a weapon. This weapon, if you can use it, so can others. Our adversary is not the weapon itself, but the other armed men.

From the perspective of the society as a whole, there is also a hidden danger that can not be ignored: that is the social exploitation, alienation and discipline of individuals.
When the machine was invented, many people felt that it could replace workers, and that workers would no longer have to work so hard — really? We know that history is not like that. The development of machines led to the construction of a large number of factories, more demand emerged, but workers still need to work hard. This is not the fault of the machine, but the nature of the profit-seeking capital.
When computers appeared, many people felt that they could solve problems beyond the reach of human beings, so we could rest easy. Really? No. We are more tied to computers and forced to work wherever and whenever we want. Our Time is being cut more into smaller pieces to meet emerging needs and tasks. Society as a whole accelerates, but so does the workload.
When cell phones came along, many people felt that our access to the world had been greatly broadened. But as it turns out, our minds and lives are much more confined to this tiny screen, drawn to an endless stream of social media, news and entertainment, dominated by“Fomo”(fear of missing out) and the hijacking of reward circuits. Our field of vision shrinks instead.
Technological leaps and breakthroughs, in addition to increasing the productivity of society as a whole, often have the effect of exacerbating social Matthew effect.
People with more resources will always have more choices, and will be more able to benefit from the social chain. But the social chain works at a cost, and it can lead to more jobs, higher social expectations and standards, and a firmer grip on busyness.
The whole social chain may run faster and smoother, but its effects are likely to be more concentrated among the rich. And the burden of the operation of the social chain load, may be you, I, is each of us.
This is a serious issue and one that may require the whole society to think about how to deal with it.

Finally, a word to add:
In the near future, with the development of AI, there will be a period of“Labor Pains”. Old Jobs have been accelerated, optimized and replaced, but new industries have not yet developed, there is bound to be a relatively chaotic period, there may be many people will be affected.
But this is also a time when a wave of demand and opportunity can be found to its benefit.
Encourage with each friend.

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