Life this probability game, how to play

It is hopeless stupidity to know only standard answers

So to make it easier to understand, I’m going to use some typical examples to explain what a game of probabilities is, and how to play this game.

Such as the typical blind date, marriage. Life events, with the standard answer to say, your lover is unique, great love, love, but the reality is often not correct. Finding the right partner is a game of chance.

First, increase the contact surface, that is, the base number.

How to increase it, take part in more online dating activities, and register more on dating platforms. Tao said, take part in more public welfare activities, or various club activities, such as chess and card clubs, which are shared by both men and women, sports fitness clubs and so on, of course, the courage to be a little bit bigger, meet a good brave about dinner, about coffee. Just as well as social development, increased contact with the opposite sex, is always the first.

The second step is to increase the conversion rate.

So someone must have said, what is the conversion rate, do not want to do the Sea King, Scumbag male. In fact, the transformation here can be done step by step, just like the landing page of an advertisement. The user clicks on it, then downloads it, and finally pays for it. It’s a funnel model, and so is marriage, the least you can do is increase the conversion rate for a second date.

This is the time to constantly review how to improve your dating performance, dress, taste, topic, and how to appropriately show off your strengths. Of course, it makes sense to keep fit.

If you have a good relationship, but not the kind of relationship with the opposite sex friends, can hire a meal to do a consultant, to help themselves to do some suggestions on how to improve, how to make themselves more attractive in the eyes of the opposite sex.

Also, put yourself in the other person’s shoes. For example, a girl is often insecure, so it doesn’t have to be money worship, but how can you convince her that you can settle down together in a big city and have a long-term survival, even the ability to train the next generation, you need to make a certain proof.

Of course, increasing the conversion rate requires a certain cost, but also need to control the cost, everything is a degree, not prepared to pay any cost, is not appropriate, but excessive cost, this is not appropriate.

The so-called probability, but also to evaluate the relationship between input and output, high cost can improve the conversion rate, but the high cost will also lead to you can not afford to try too much.

The first two steps were all up to standard. One could not be afraid to interact with the opposite sex, and one could have more second dates. The third step was the so-called filtering mechanism, you need to assess who can really live together for the long term and who can go the distance. Then focus on developing subsequent relationships.

This is not to encourage the sea king, as described in the first if you are the one movie, before the relationship is established, a lot of dating is actually very reasonable.

Yes, many of life’s choices are based on a similar model, such as finding a job. The first step is to send out a lot of resumes, publish them, and look for social connections and Headhunters to increase your exposure. The second step is to optimize the conversion rate, including personal experience, skills development and packaging, ability growth, to get more interviews, to get more offers, and then the third step is screening, which offers and which ones are your final favorites.

A lot of people come up to me before they even start sending out resumes and ask, “How should I choose a job?” Come on, ask me again when you get an offer.

When you understand that many of life’s big decisions, choices, are probability and games, yes, you’re choosing and betting, and so are your opponents, whether it’s you and your potential partner, or you and your potential business, there’s a game going on in both directions, where you want to get a higher return at a lower cost, and I’m sorry, the other side thinks the same thing, and then the game, as I said in my previous article, is Who’s the scarcity side, who’s the pricing power. So why do you want to look for more possibilities, only you are not the scarcity side, you can control their own pricing power.

Very incorrect, but very realistic.

A summary of some of the key points of the probability game.

First, there is no one standard answer to everything. All roads lead to Rome. All roads lead to probability. When you make a choice, be aware of this. Everything is probability. Everything is game.

Second, to understand costs and expectations, you have to calculate costs, what costs, in addition to money, time costs, opportunity costs, you have to know how much you’re willing to pay to increase the probability of achieving your expectations, you have to be clear about what is expected.

Cost * if the probability of achieving the expected return is greater than the expected return, we call this probability positive expectation. If the probability of achieving the expected return is less than the expected return, we call it negative expectation.

In fact, I found that many people will despise the cost, full of standard answer people, only know a way to go to the dark, high cost of the pursuit of slim expectations, is not wise.

Third, understand the underlying logic of the game, which is not about Either/Or but about coexistence. Just like labor relations, which is a classic example of game theory, when I used the game theory to talk about employment a few years ago, Idiots would just post standard answers in the comments section, and the truth is, the employment problem is not solved by the self-righteous standard answers of idiots. The fact is, the fact has been moving along my prediction, not along the so-called standard answer. The so-called value of logic is here, the correct logic can predict the reality. That’s why I say standard answers don’t solve real problems. Seek truth from facts, people with standard answers don’t understand real problems, so they use standard answers to blame others and wait for others to save them, but can not do anything about their current situation.

When you’re trying to achieve your goals, you’re playing a certain game with your boss, or you’re playing with your employees, or you’re playing with potential partners, or other partners, or business partners, understand the advantages and disadvantages of both sides of the resources, the right understanding of their own scarcity, the right understanding of their own position in the game, in order to reasonably strive for their own value, to achieve their own goals.

Fourth, break through the information cocoon

In the process of predicting probability, the biggest dilemma is the information cocoon. Why do many people think that the only way out is to get into a good university? No matter how they repeat it, it is right because of the information and cognition they have, they see only this one path, and they don’t see more, higher-dimensional information, so they can’t see other possibilities.

Several typical information cocoons.

One is to ignore the time frame. Time is an extremely expensive and important cost, and a key factor in determining the return on output.

For example, whenever I say it’s not that important, a lot of people say, you don’t know, it’s not easy to get a job without a graduate degree. What’s the problem?

Going back to my old article, they were comparing undergraduates and graduate students of the same year. Did they realize that they were comparing undergraduates of the same year with postgraduates three years later, less aware of the cost of three years in the future in the workplace what it means.

For example, many overseas real estate agents often advertise that a certain area’s house prices have been increasing year after year. In fact, compared with the opening prices of the new market in the same area every year, the real situation is that the annual depreciation costs of the houses you buy are staggering, so regional price growth does not represent your investment growth, you should be compared with a year after the purchase of second-hand housing prices with the annual price changes, rather than the new opening price changes.

Ignoring time, an important frame of reference, is the biggest cognitive problem of information and the cause of many stupid decisions.

The second is that the news is not normal.

The so-called dog-eat-dog is not news. people-eat-dog is news. Many people are keen to spread the news. For example, graduates from famous overseas universities can not find jobs when they return home, how graduates from the northern part of the Qing dynasty do not perform well in the workplace, and why these are news, because it’s not universal. That’s why it’s news.

So many people see some news, listen to some cases, self-righteous know the truth of the world.

Third, the content that spreads easily caters to certain emotions.

As I said before, “Those who have no choice think that the chosen one is the best,” So What’s the easiest thing to spread? Those who study abroad and return home are not competitive, and those who emigrate overseas are not doing well and can’t come back. It’s very sad, right, i made a few comments about the soaring prices in Singapore, and it was understood that I also regret immigration.

So you see the popular spread of content, are to cater to such emotions, if there are immigrants to live very comfortable, study abroad to return home very competitive workplace, this is not in line with the spread trend.

So you see the popular spread of content, are to cater to such emotions, if there are immigrants to live very comfortable, study abroad to return home very competitive workplace, this is not in line with the spread trend.

So only if you can get an insight into that, can you see how credible the information is and how much of a gap there is between what’s true and what’s being spread.

Fourth, you need to know who is providing the standard answer, and why they provide such a standard answer.

I’m not going to expand on that, sorry. If you really understand this, you can really take control of your life. If you don’t understand, just go back to sleep.

Fifth, understand diversity

What is diversity, your expectations should not have only one path.

For example, there is a typical comment is like this, overseas famous university students return to China to work in a large enterprise, HR simply do not know this school, no competitive. So the conclusion is, it’s better to read 211 than to read this. Of course, this kind of talk is in line with the above-mentioned pandering sentiment, but reading the expected goals of overseas students, is it necessary to specify a way to work in a big company back home?

It is a fact that there are some deficiencies in some specific paths of development of overseas famous universities when compared with domestic famous universities, but its advantage lies in that it expands the possibility of various paths, these possibilities also have an expected value, and of course some people say no, my goal is to come back and do something, so maybe the choice is negative, but if you want to keep multiple possibilities, looking for more global social links, networking resources, and development opportunities in the future, then perhaps the payoff is that this is exactly what is expected of me. Personally, I want to give myself more possibilities, more options,  Of course I know, many people just want to pursue certainty, I’m sorry, probability game, everything is probability, no certainty.

Back to the case.

The college entrance examination is a game of probability. Getting into different universities corresponds to different probabilities. Well, I know that many people will choose to repeat their exams because the exams are not ideal enough. I don’t think that repetition is a positive expectation of probability, or, i don’t think most repeat reading is positive probability expectation.

Why do you say that? There is a kind of repetition that I think may be a positive expectation. What situation? When you took the college entrance examination, you had diarrhea, fell ill, fell asleep, and the examination was a complete mess, far below the true level. At this time, rereading the probabilities can greatly improve your gaokao scores and your ability to choose a school, in which case it’s likely to be positive (and only possible because there are other options) . For example, TK teach main college entrance examination on the diarrhea, far below the usual level, but there is no repeat, but also to achieve the life of the class transition.

If you just think you can do better, the time cost of this year is very expensive. The potential rewards may not be as good as you think.

Being Young is a huge advantage in the workplace, where tolerance for young people is very different from tolerance for older people, and if you don’t get high enough at a certain age, you basically hit a ceiling.

Everything is probability. If you say a case, there will be a positive case with a negative expectation. There will always be people who argue. I know who has done particularly well after repeating their studies. Yes, there are also people who went to Macau casinos and made a lot of money, but a negative expectation is a negative expectation, it’s a game of chance. Always remember that.

A few years ago, when the topic of the postgraduate entrance examination was brought up, many people started to criticize it. However, looking back today, did the children who took the postgraduate entrance examination a few years ago graduate now? was their employment situation better than their undergraduate degree a few years ago? Even if someone is a little bit better, is it really okay with your time cost? Do you have any idea how many years you had in your prime? Take an examination of grind still have the Second World War three world wars, I am completely can not understand, you come out after an age or workplace newbie, need not a few years to begin midlife crisis.

Early into the community is the best growth, is the highest return to the path of output, you repeat, you graduate, the comparative frame of reference is in the social growth and work experience accumulation. Most of the time, it’s negative expectations. Of course, some people say that certain fields must have a graduate degree, can not be a top student to take the academic line, yes, if you really go this way, please tell me why you are not eligible for exemption from examination research.

Why the Western developed countries do not take an examination of grind this argument completely, and see hardly repeat a student? All I know is that Korea has this, a higher percentage than China. Do you think this is a model we should follow

Another interesting case is the clash of deterministic and probabilistic thinking. The Chinese College entrance examination is completely ranked according to the results. The admission schools are based on the clear admission results, there is a deterministic relationship between admission and the score line. But the west doesn’t have much chance or probability. For example, I saw a case today. There was a top student in China who applied for a prestigious British university this year and was very happy to get an offer from Cambridge. However, UCL, who was also a student with the same major, actually rejected him (UCL’s admission criteria were much lower than Cambridge’s) . This top student was a little serious, ask yourself why you were rejected for writing a letter to argue. As a result, the other recruiter forwarded the email to a professor who was applying for the examination. There was indeed a professor who carefully read his grades and background. Then, the professor was also at a loss, saying that his qualifications were indeed excellent, he also did not know why he was rejected and then transferred to the recruiting agency. The recruiting teacher was also a little confused, saying that they did not know what criteria the reviewers were based on when they sent the rejection letter, but said that if the other side is sincere to UCL, can send a professional offer to other. Of course, there is no accident, Brainiac chose Cambridge in the end.

Then why did he say that in this case, even if the other university was recruiting a teacher, there was not a clear chance of admission? It was very common for all A + students to receive rejection letters on A-level exams. It’s all about probability, and it’s all there when you apply to an overseas university. It is also increasingly common for high school students and parents to apply to prestigious overseas schools with Chinese determinism, feeling that their grades are good, only to be disappointed.

So, come back to reality, accept the probability, understand that life is a game of probability, learn how to choose between probability and game, understand the subtext of so-called standard answer correctly, you can really grasp their own life, the pursuit of their own future.

A little bit more, some people say that in many small cities, ordinary people have a job, have a fixed monthly income, and it’s quite nice to jerk off and drink beer every day, well, that’s one way to look at it, but there’s a problem, just a small problem, that is, the fault tolerance of this kind of life is very low, can you understand, an accident, a serious illness, a fraud, you can get into a very desperate situation where you have very little fault-tolerance of your own, and all that fault-tolerance is left to society and the government.

Life is very long. From the perspective of decades, the probability of various accidents is not a small probability. You See, it’s back to the game of probability. Whether society can guarantee such fault tolerance, let’s evaluate separately. The standard answer is yes, I won’t read it.

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